The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economic Security of Russian Regions: Assessment of Resistance to the Spillover Effects of Epidemic Risks

The research aims to identify the spillover effects of epidemic risks for the economic security of Russian regions and propose a system of measures for their leveling at the stage of post-pandemic recovery. The research substantiates the hypothesis that epidemic risks of economic security have spillover effects on the economy of Russian regions, increasing the impact of a combination of traditional risks and provoking the emergence of new risks. The authors proposed a system of indicators and a methodology for assessing the stability of regional economic systems to the spillover effects of epidemic risks based on the use of a statistical method for calculating integral indicators. The results of the calculations made it possible to rank the regions of Russia by the level of resistance to the spillover effects of epidemic risks to economic security. It is proved that the Southern Federal District has the greatest resistance to spillover effects. Ranking of regions by the indicator of resistance to spillover effects allowed the authors to propose a model of economic security management for two types of regional economic systems. For regions resistant to spillover effects, it is recommended to implement a set of measures aimed at strengthening internal potential. For regions unstable to the spillover effect, a sequence of actions is proposed based on leveling the negative impact of the spillover effects and the subsequent implementation of measures to strengthen internal potential. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Quantifying the spatial spillover effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pandemic risk.

BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented in one place can affect neighboring regions by influencing people's behavior. However, existing epidemic models for NPIs evaluation rarely consider such spatial spillover effects, which may lead to a biased assessment of policy effects. METHODS: Using the US state-level mobility and policy data from January 6 to August 2, 2020, we develop a quantitative framework that includes both a panel spatial econometric model and an S-SEIR (Spillover-Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) model to quantify the spatial spillover effects of NPIs on human mobility and COVID-19 transmission. RESULTS: The spatial spillover effects of NPIs explain [Formula: see text] [[Formula: see text] credible interval: 52.8-[Formula: see text]] of national cumulative confirmed cases, suggesting that the presence of the spillover effect significantly enhances the NPI influence. Simulations based on the S-SEIR model further show that increasing interventions in only a few states with larger intrastate human mobility intensity significantly reduce the cases nationwide. These region-based interventions also can carry over to interstate lockdowns. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides a framework for evaluating and comparing the effectiveness of different intervention strategies conditional on NPI spillovers, and calls for collaboration from different regions.

COVID-19 vaccinations and mental health among U.S. adults: Individual and spillover effects.

RATIONALE: The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic increases not only in physical illness, but also in mental health symptoms and disorders among U.S. adults. Although the introduction of COVID-19 vaccines dramatically lowered rates of physical illness and death, little is known about the effects of vaccines on mental health. OBJECTIVES: We assessed both individual and spillover effects of COVID-19 vaccination on mental health disorders, and whether effects of individual vaccination varied based on contextual risks indicated by state infection rates and state vaccination rates. METHODS: Using data from the Household Pulse Survey, we assessed 448,900 adults surveyed within approximately the first six months of the U.S. vaccine rollout (February 3 - August 2, 2021). Coarsened exact matching balanced vaccinated and non-vaccinated participants on demographic and economic characteristics. RESULTS: Logistic regression analyses found 7% lowered odds of depression among vaccinated individuals, but no significant difference in anxiety. Reflecting potential spillover effects, state vaccination rates predicted lowered odds of anxiety and depression (1% decrease in odds for each additional 1% of the state population vaccinated). Although state COVID-19 infection rates did not moderate effects of individual vaccination on mental health outcomes, significant interactions indicated that effects of individual vaccination on mental health were stronger in contexts of lower state vaccination rates, and links between state vaccination rates and mental health problems were stronger among unvaccinated individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that COVID-19 vaccinations improved the mental health of adults in the U.S., with lower rates of self-reported mental health disorders both among vaccinated individuals themselves and among other individuals living in the same state, particularly when those individuals were not themselves vaccinated. These direct and spillover effects on mental health expand our understanding of the benefits of COVID-19 vaccination for the wellbeing of adults in the U.S.

Does foreign equity investment impact the spillover effect of industries in China?

This study aims to systematically investigate the impact of foreign equity investment on the spillover across industries in China, both in terms of the contagion path and persistence of shocks and the performance during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use daily data on returns covering 2014 to 2022 and apply linear and non-linear causality tests and spillover framework. Our findings show that the two proxies of foreign investment, net buying and Δ Net Buying, significantly shock the spillover across 11 industry indexes of China's stock market, particularly the spillover output and long-term spillover received of sectors. During the COVID-19 pandemic, international investors are bullish on China's economy reflected in the continuous inflow of northbound trading, and the short-run influence on China's stock market is weakened, while the long-run impact remains. Moreover, financial networks suggest that the path of movement international capital movement to accomplish overall contagion through shock in certain specific industries. Overall, this study evidence that the northbound trading generally overlooked by researchers is indeed an important channel of financial contagion to China's stock market.

Containment Measures and Business Confidence in COVID Times: A Global Study

In this article, we take a global perspective to assess the impact of the exogenous COVID pandemic shock on business confidence. Through a quantitative analysis of 31 advanced and 12 emerging economies over the period from January 2018 to December 2020, we provide a novel investigation of a unique worldwide event, in contrast to the most frequent exogenous shocks, which typically have a more limited local or regional scope. We proxy business expectations with the business confidence indicator or BCI. First, we find that the containment measures for the COVID pandemic have negatively affected business confidence, with the compulsory policies having a greater negative effect on BCI than the voluntary ones. Second, we find positive spillover effects on the local BCIs from the containment measures implemented in neighboring countries. This suggests that business people are not against compulsory measures per se, but rather that they are less inclined to assume the costs of these. Third, we find that while the severity of containment measures has been greater in emerging countries, the negative impact on BCI of these containment measures has been larger in advanced economies.Alternate :摘要：本文采用全球视角来评估新冠疫情带来的外源性休克给企业家经商信心带来的影响。通过对31个发达经济体和12个发展中经济体从2018年1月至2020年12月数据的量化分析，我们对该全球性事件进行了调研。使用企业家的 "商业期待” 来代表其经商信心，我们发现了几个重要结果。首先，新冠防疫措施挫伤了经商信心，措施越严厉，负面效应越大。其次，邻国由于疫情措施对经商信心的挫伤会产生溢出效应，而影响本地企业家的经商信心。第三，虽然发展中经济体的防疫措施更加严厉，但其负面影响却在发达经济体中更大。

An Examination of the Spatial Spillover Effects of Tourism Transportation on Sustainable Development from a Multiple-Indicator Cross-Perspective

Tourism is linked to multiple dimensions, such as the economy, society, and environment, and the relationships among its influencing factors are complex, diverse, and overlapping. This study constructed an evaluation index system to measure the degree of coordinated development of tourism, transportation, and the regional economy, then built a tourism-transportation-based Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) regarding the process of the coordinated development of tourism in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTHR) from 2010 to 2020. This paper explains the current status of sustainable tourism development in the BTHR and the impact and spillover effects of transportation on tourism development. The results show that the normalized tourism coordinated development index (NTCDI) of the BTHR increased from 13.61 in 2010 to 18.75 in 2019, then decreased to 14.45 in 2020. The results of SDM show that different transportation modes have different spillover effects on tourism. Specifically, civil aviation transportation has a positive impact and significant spillover on a city's tourism revenue (TR), while high-speed railway transportation has a negative spillover effect. The model results also show that the degree of openness of the city and city economic development level have significant positive effects and spillover effects on tourism development. Finally, the implications of related variables are discussed, and some suggestions are put forward on tourism development in the BTHR. However, there are some limitations in this study. In the future, international cooperation and data sharing will be strengthened, and multivariate methods such as social network analysis, artificial intelligence, and machine learning will be further integrated to achieve accurate simulation and prediction of the spatial spillover effects of tourism transportation.

Validating the Financial Literacy Index of Hungarian SMEs during the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian War

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian war have had a significant impact on economies around the world, with pivotal implications for the activities of companies. The issue of corporate financial literacy has been within our scope of interest for a matter of years now, and this study aims at re-enforcing our previous overall theoretical and literacy-based analysis from a methodological approach. We use our own previous databases to explore and analyze the importance of corporate financial literacy, taking into account the economic factors inside and outside the organization that affect the businesses. For this, a confirmative factor analysis (CFA) model has been created. The article aims at two things with this. On the one hand, we intend to introduce the wider scope of the fit tests applicable in the CFA, thus giving a direction to other authors. It also allows for adequate verification for their models, while at the same time conducting the fit test for our corporate financial literacy model as well as a valid model framework suitable for making measurements and deductions. With the resulting model, this paper aims to examine the corporate financial literacy, the current economic challenges, and the issues faced by managers during crises. In addition to all this, with our article, we also want to make some contribution to the methodology of empirical data analysis: in the article we collect the fit tests that can be used to validate confirmatory factor models, the way they are determined, and most importantly, we try to sort out the literature approaches to the acceptable values of these tests, giving the reader a kind of guide and a reference base. The results of the research identify response measures that can contribute to increasing companies' resilience based on the principles of financial awareness.

Analyzing the network structure of risk transmission among renewable, non-renewable energy and carbon markets

The linkage of renewable, non-renewable energy and carbon markets is increasing, and there is a complex network structure for the risk transmission among multiple markets. Based on the methods of network topology analysis and DY spillover index, this paper analyzes the time-varying spillover effect and network structure of risk transmission among renewable, non-renewable energy and carbon markets. The results show that: according to the static spillover index, there are significant spillover effects among renewable, non-renewable energy and carbon markets, and they are asymmetric. Moreover, the total spillover index further shows that the spillover effect between energy and carbon markets is time-varying, especially during the extreme events. Specifically, the net spillover index shows that the spillover effects among renewable, non-renewable energy and carbon markets are bidirectional, asymmetric and time-varying. Additionally, under the influence of various extreme events, the spillover effect and network structure of risk transmission among renewable, non-renewable energy and carbon markets are heterogeneous. Compared with the shale oil revolution and the Sino-US trade dispute, the influence of COVID-19 is more significant and complex, and it is long-term and comprehensive. Finally, some policy implications for preventing risk transmission and optimizing the energy structure to promote emission reduction are put forward. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Renewable Energy: An International Journal is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Stock Markets and COVID-19 Outbreak Spillover Effects: Evidence from the MENA Region

This paper examines the short and long impact of covid-19 and its spillover effects on MENA region stock markets by using the t-tests and Mann - Whitney non-parametric tests to examine the mean and median daily returns from June 25, 2019, to November 22, 2020.Using a sample of tenselected MENA countries and nine most affected word countries by the covid-19on November 22, 2020, we findthat all stock markets are negatively and significantly affected by the covid-19 outbreak in the short term but not in the long term and that this impact has bidirectional spillover effects between MENA countries and Asian, European, and American countries. However, there is no evidence that these countries' stock markets were affected by the covid-19 more negatively than it does the global average. Copyright © 2022. All Rights Reserved.

Spillover Effects and Connectedness between Oil Futures Markets and Commodity Futures Markets

In this study, it was found that the spillover effects between oil futures markets and commodity futures markets. I use the volatility spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to analyze the connectedness between oil futures and commodity futures returns. The main analysis results of this study are as follows. First, I show that spillover effects depend on the period, and especially find that spillover effects are active after the Russian-Ukraine War. Second, I find that the WTI and BRENT futures have a high value in both to spillover effects and From spillover effects. Third, the wheat futures market plays an important role after the COVID-19 outbreak. Finally, I find that the non-ferrous metal futures market is dependent on other markets in most periods. As a result, I find that the WTI and BRENT futures are important information senders in the oil and product asset markets. And the empirical results show that the Russia-Ukraine war increases the linkage of the futures market rather than COVID-19 outbreak. © 2023, Success Culture Press. All rights reserved.

Dynamic spillover between traditional energy markets and emerging green markets: Implications for sustainable development

This study employs the time-varying vector parameter autoregression model and Diebold-Yilmaz (2012, 2014) spillover approach to explore the static, net, dynamic and directional spillover effects between China's traditional energy and emerging green markets and the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on spillover effects. Spillover networks are constructed to observe structural changes in the directional spillover of each target financial market before and after the pandemic's outbreak. Changes in hedging indicators of portfolios composed of two types of markets before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 are compared to provide directional guidance for investors to choose portfolios in the post-pandemic era. We found that the outbreak of the pandemic had a considerable impact on the volatility of various spillover effects of the studied markets. The total spillover level of the system increased rapidly by 18% in the early stages of the pandemic. Green bond was the largest net recipient of volatility spillovers in the whole system, followed by crude oil, while new energy was the largest net contributor of volatility spillovers in the whole system, followed by clean energy. After the outbreak, the hedging effectiveness of portfolios with long positions in traditional energy markets and short positions in emerging green markets improved significantly. In particular, a portfolio with long positions in the crude oil market and short positions in the green bond market is the best risk-hedging portfolio. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd

Gone with the epidemic? The spatial effects of the Covid-19 on global investment network.

The outbreak of Covid-19 epidemic has a prolonged impact on global economic activities. In recent years, many scholars have been motivated to estimate the effects of Covid-19 shock on global foreign direct investment (FDI). However, existing studies have not paid enough attention to the spillover effects caused by the epidemic. Although few academic works have explored the geographic-neighboring spillover effects of epidemic shock on global investment, we further extent the understanding of the spillover effects in an economic network. On the basis of country-month greenfield FDI panels, we construct a spatial Durbin model, and figure out that Covid-19 shock may have positive FDI spillover effects in an economic network via global FDI transfers. Furthermore, we find that such spillovers are greatly conditioned by country-level network position and institutional ties among nations. Our research suggests that global FDI transfers may partly offset economic-adverse effects of the Covid-19 shock. While global countries, especially those in the Global South, should be more closely embedded in the global investment network in such an uncertain environment.

Risk Dependence and Risk Spillovers Effect from Crude Oil on the Chinese Stock Market and Gold Market: Implications on Portfolio Management

We analyze crude oil's dependence and the risk spillover effect on the Chinese stock market and the gold market. We compare both static and dynamic copula functions and calculate the average upward and downward spillover effect using the time-varying Copula model and the conditional value-at-risk approach. By utilizing daily data on crude oil prices, China's stock market, and the gold market, we observe an asymmetric spillover effect: the downside spillover effects from crude oil prices on the Chinese stock market and gold market are larger than the upside spillover effect. We then identify changes in the structure of the sample periods and calculate the dynamic conditional correlation between them. In addition, we explore the optimal weight and hedge ratios in diversified portfolios to mitigate potential risks. Our results suggest that investors and portfolio managers should frequently adjust their portfolio strategies, particularly during extreme events like COVID-19, when financial assets become more volatile. Furthermore, crude oil can help reduce the risk in the Chinese stock market and gold market to some extent during different sub-periods. © 2023 by the authors.

Information spillovers between carbon emissions trading prices and shipping markets: A time-frequency analysis

Climate change has become mankind's main challenge. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shipping are not totally irresponsible for this representing, roughly, 3% of the global total;an amount equal to that of Germany's total GHG emissions. The Fourth Greenhouse Gas Study 2020 of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) predicts that the share of GHG emissions from shipping will increase further, as international trade recovers and continues to grow, alongside with the economic development of India, China, and Africa. China and the European Union have proposed to include shipping in their carbon emissions trading systems (ETS). As a result, the study of the relationship between the carbon finance market and the shipping industry, attempted here for the first time, is both important and timely, both for policymakers and shipowners. We use wavelet analysis and the spillover index methods to explore the dynamic dependence and information spillovers between the carbon finance market and shipping. We discover a long-term dependence and information linkages between the two markets, with the carbon finance market being the dominant one. Major events, such as the 2009 global financial crisis;Brexit in 2016;the 2018 China-US trade frictions;and COVID-19 are shown to strengthen the dependence of carbon finance and shipping. We find that the dependence is strongest between the EU carbon finance market and dry bulk shipping, while the link is weaker in the case of tanker shipping. Nonetheless, carbon finance and tanker shipping showed a relatively stronger dependence when OPEC refused to cut production in 2014, and when the China-US trade disputes led to the collapse of oil prices after 2018. We show that information spillovers between carbon finance and shipping are bidirectional and asymmetric, with the carbon finance market being the principal transmitter of information. Our results and their interpretation provide guidance to governments on whether (and how) to include shipping in emissions trading schemes, supporting at the same time the environmental sustainability decisions of shipping companies. © 2023 The Authors

Analysis of the spillover effects between green economy, clean and dirty cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies have been widely used as financial instruments over the past decade. Given the development of the cryptocurrency market and the increasing awareness of greener and more energy-efficient tokens, their connection to the green economy has become a popular topic for understanding economic and policy issues. However, the literature still lacks clear evidence on how cryptocurrencies interact with green economy indicators. Therefore, this study examines the correlations and spillover relationships between green economy indices, five black cryptocurrencies, and five clean cryptocurrencies for the U.S., Euro, and Asian markets. To this end, it applies the novel quantile spillover index approach of Ando et al. (2018) to daily data from November 9, 2017, to April 4, 2022. The empirical results show that the overall linkage is stronger for green economy indices and clean cryptocurrencies than for dirty cryptocurrencies. Moreover, green economy indices show net receiving behavior, while cryptocurrencies' results differ across variables, quantiles, and time. In addition, a notable point for clean cryptocurrencies is 2020, which was the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The overall spillover effect is very high for all quantiles for the three markets, especially for Asia. This outcome signifies the safe harbor property for diversification purposes of the green economy. The results presented in this study are important for investors, regulators and, policymakers, cryptocurrency founders as they seek to be financially integrated and develop a more sustainable business. © 2023

The impact of COVID-19 on the tourism and hospitality Industry: Evidence from international stock markets

COVID-19 seriously affects the tourism and hospitality industry. In this study, we investigate the behavior of 40 tourism and hospitality stock market indices worldwide from two perspectives. First, empowered by the Granger causality test and network analysis, we test the spillover effects among these stock markets and find that the dynamics of interconnectedness network structures differ significantly in the pre-pandemic and in-pandemic periods. Second, we employ econometric models to explore how the influence of COVID-19 on these stock markets varies by considering the interconnectedness structure, the government response stringency index, and other country-level characteristics. We find that the interconnectedness structure significantly and robustly affects stock returns in the tourism and hospitality markets. Our investigation provides a better understanding of the impact of COVID-19 on tourism and hospitality industry. © 2022 Elsevier Inc.

Volatility spillover across Chinese carbon markets: Evidence from quantile connectedness method

The paper investigates the volatility spillover across China's carbon emission trading (CET) markets using the connectedness method based on the quantile VAR framework. The non-linear result shows strong volatility spillover effects in upper quantiles, resulting from major economic and political events. This is in accordance with the risk contagion hypothesis that volatility of carbon price returns is affected by the shocks of economic fundamentals and spills over to other pilots. Guangdong and Shanghai are the most significant contributors to volatility transmission because of their high liquidity and active markets. Hubei CET pilot has shifted from transmitter to receiver since the COVID-19 pandemic. Regarding the pairwise directional connectedness, geographical location and similar market attribute also matter in volatility transmission. This provides implications for policymakers and investors to attach importance to risk management given the quantile-based method rather than the average shocks. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.

Dependences and risk spillover effects between Bitcoin, crude oil and other traditional financial markets during the COVID-19 outbreak.

This study examines the relationship and risk spillover between Bitcoin, crude oil, and six traditional markets (the US stock, Chinese stock, gold, bond, currency, and real estate markets) from 2019 to 2020, during which the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak occurred as well. We first discuss the static relationship between Bitcoin and these markets using a quantile-on-quantile model and examine the dynamic relationship using a time-varying copula model. A conditional value-at-risk model is subsequently used to estimate the risk spillover between the markets studied. The empirical results reveal that the relationship between these markets is always time-varying, and the COVID-19 outbreak has revealed such changes in the relationship between Bitcoin and other traditional financial markets. The risk of all single markets has enhanced because of the pandemic. Further, the risk spillover of these markets has also changed dramatically since the COVID-19 outbreak during which the Bitcoin market has played an important role and exerted a significant impact on the crude oil market, and the four other markets (US stock, gold, Chinese stock, and real estate markets). Overall, our findings indicate that investors and policymakers need to be made aware of the risk spillover between Bitcoin, crude oil, and other traditional markets and that flexible hedge strategies and policies should be implemented in response to the challenges and economic recession observed following the COVID-19 outbreak.

The spillovers among cryptocurrency, clean energy and oil

The COVID-19 causes strong spillover effects between financial markets. This paper explores the dynamic spillover effects among cryptocurrency, clean energy and oil during the COVID-19 by employing TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach. The empirical results show that clean energy and oil markets appear to be the net receivers of spillovers, whereas cryptocurrency market appears to be a net transmitter of spillovers. The dynamic total connectedness experiences a rapid increase in March 2020 when the COVID-19 spreads around the world. © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The impact of COVID-19 on the tourism and hospitality Industry: Evidence from international stock markets

COVID-19 seriously affects the tourism and hospitality industry. In this study, we investigate the behavior of 40 tourism and hospitality stock market indices worldwide from two perspectives. First, empowered by the Granger causality test and network analysis, we test the spillover effects among these stock markets and find that the dynamics of interconnectedness network structures differ significantly in the pre-pandemic and in-pandemic periods. Second, we employ econometric models to explore how the influence of COVID-19 on these stock markets varies by considering the interconnectedness structure, the government response stringency index, and other country-level characteristics. We find that the interconnectedness structure significantly and robustly affects stock returns in the tourism and hospitality markets. Our investigation provides a better understanding of the impact of COVID-19 on tourism and hospitality industry.